Thirty years after the first energy crisis (late 73 - early 74), let us look back at the energy debate at the time, and the forecasts that were made for the turn of the 20th century. We now have the benefit of hindsight, and do not intend to criticize the views of the past, but rather learn a lesson of humility relevant for today.

Over these past 30 years, a long-term vision on energy has not yet emerged. The debate on nuclear is ongoing, and after Chernobyl and Three Mile Island, we now seem to have reached the end of the reverse swing of the pendulum. Energy conservation remains a huge potential. Renewables have experienced remarkable progress during the 90's, but fall short of the expectations formed in 1974. Apart from specific countries (e.g. Germany, Denmark), they yet have to develop into a substantial energy source.

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