future

In his 18th book, Vaclav Smil summarizes a lifetime of energy studies in 'Energy at the Crossroads - Global Perspectives and Uncertainties'. The result is a highly accessible book, yet rich in argument.

A chapter on 'energy linkages' looks at the broader energy context (environment, development, war, quality of life, ...). It lies a foundation for a later definition of a necessary energy consumption for essential quality of life requirements.

'Against forecasting' looks back to a century of attempts and often spectacular failures, sometimes by up to an order of magnitude, concluding that the human mind has difficulty assessing the full impact of new technology.

In fossil fuel futures, Smil dares to refer to the Russian-Ukrainian theory of the abyssal abiotic origin of hydrobarbons, calling it 'intriguing' and commenting that it merits more attention that it has received so far in the West.

Before starting the concluding chapter 'possible futures', Smil argues that nuclear energy is likely to have a role, but this role most probably will be limited. Energy efficiency will help as well, but decades of efficiency improvements have seen efficiency gains evaporate for higher demands of energy services. He dares to ask the question of a minimum energy requirements for a decent quality of life, which he estimates at 50-70 GJ/capita, and leaving it to the reader to construct his own scenario's.

In the future energy system, not a single solution will work by itself, and the 'a priori' exclusion of certain options is counterproductive. The path to carbon-free energy is going to take most of the 21st century. The author calls for action of 'complexifying minimalists' rather than 'simplifying maximalists'. We will need a multitude of approaches, flexibility, tolerance and openness.

Finally a personal observation. Sustainable energy may not be an economic or technical problem. The arsenal of solutions is there. At the end of the day, it may be a moral issue.

To publisher site

In this book, Mark Jaccard doubts our prospects for moving away quickly from carbon fuels to renewable energy sources, and expects an energy system largely dominated by fossil fuels for the 21st century. This however does not need to be incompatible with a sustainable energy system, which the book defines in practical terms according to 2 criteria:

1. The prospect for enduring indefinitely an adequate level of energy services
2. Extraction, transformation, transport and consumption of energy must be benign to people and eco-systems.

One of the central themes is a strong move to clean secondary energy - e.g. electricity and hydrogen, with no harmful emissions at the point of use. On the primary energy side, we see a wider use of new emission-free transformation technologies converting fossil fuel into these carriers, or cleaner burning fuels.

In such a scenario, the prospects of energy efficiency would be reduced. Additional transformation steps would reduce the overall efficiency of the energy system. At the same time, world population & economic development will still result in a 3 times larger demand for energy services than today.

As for the nuclear option, as it is disliked by many, a more widespread use of nuclear power is unlikely unless the technology can produce a significant cost advantage.

Sustainable Fossil Fuels would add 25% to the cost of electricity, and the use of hydrogen in cars would increase personal transport by the same. Overall, household spending on energy would increase from 6% to 8% of income.

At the beginning of the new year, SEAL is pleased to introduce its new campaign 'Can Nuclear Power Deliver?'. Based on literature review and expert interviews, SEAL's 13th briefing paper provides an overview of arguments in the nuclear debate.

Since the first oil shock 31 years ago, has the world moved towards a more sustainable energy system? Or has a proliferation of energy policies, regulations, enthusiasms and philosophies resulted in a hive of activity, with little progress? Does Europe lack an energy strategy?

This paper defines 11 dimensions for a national or regional energy policy, and 13 technologies to realise these objectives. It further explores the link between energy technologies and policy objectives, according to a matrix.

The table demonstrates that there is no such thing like a perfect energy source, though energy efficiency and non-intermittent renewables come pretty close to this ideal.