Fossil energy

Energyville is another simulation game allowing players to qualitatively explore tradeoffs in the choices we make for our energy system.

In the game, you need to ensure the energy needs (not just electricity, but also transport and heating) for a city of 3.9 million people, with a 2030 time horizon. And of course, you need to keep citizens prosperous and minimise impact to the environment.

This game is a bit mroe crude than Electrocity, which should not matter, since anyway the simulation is at best a rough approximation. The learning cycle is much faster, and play much easier, but at the expense of the higher resolution offered by Electrocity.

If you have 5 minutes, try Energyville. If you can spare half an hour, go for Electrocity.

 

"The energy crisis is certainly one of the most complex subjects ever put before the media, and through them, to the American public. It encompasses international relations, economics, science, and that most unpredictable of groups, the consuming public.”

Walker, 1974

Most citizens have strong opinions on energy matters, but a recent survey in the USA of 1,333 adults demonstrates that the factual basis for such opinions is often missing in the respondent's mind. Asking 20 questions, typically less than a quarter of respondents answer correctly, and not a single question has more than 46% correct answers.

Of course, one does not need to know the exact numbers to form an opinion, and for some questions, the 'correct' answer is more a matter of opinion or expectation than actual fact.

Still, some misunderstandings may cause future surprises:

• a typical overestimate of the current impact of renewables, probably related to high media attention
• an overestimate of the US dependency on Middle East oil
• an overestimate of US energy dependency in general
• and an underestimate of the efforts made by companies to find alternatives (though the inclusion of gas-to-liquids and oil shale in this list adds apples to oranges)

It shows that 30 years after the first energy crisis , energy remains an education challenge. With energy currently at its peak of attention, low awareness of the facts now is unlikely to improve in the future.

By Kenneth S Deffeyes

As an academic geologist from Princeton who has spent a large part of his working life in exploration, Professor Kenneth S Deffeyes is worth reading on carbon energy sources. 'Beyond Oil' obliges through providing the usual chapters on oil, gas, coal and uranium. It discusses alternative carbon supplies such as tar sands and oil shale. But if you can spare only time for reading one chapter, read the last one 'the big picture'.

With earth formed 4,500 million years ago, geologists 'can't be bothered with stuff that lasts less than a million years', which is incidentally about the lifetime of a mammal species. As there is no reason why Homo Sapiens should be an exception, we may have 900,000 years left before the next stage in our evolution.

Thinking out of the box, an example that we can make deliverate changes to the earth's major systems: digging 2 sea-level canals accross the Isthmus with flap gates could wipe out in a few 100 years the salinity difference between the Pacific and the Atlantic, making the tropics less hot, and the poles less cold. In other words 'San Diego everywhere'.

Beyond Oil offers further musings on population control as an instrument for sustainability. Obviously controversial, the most humane and acceptable method would be to teach calculus to teenage girls.

Its recipe prefers a mix of existing technologies, such as high efficiency automobiles, coal-fired power plants located near to CO2underground storage areas, wind turbines and nuclear power plants. It also pleads for a better use of combined techniques, i.e.:

• plan coal-fired electric power plants near to oil fields, to use CO2 for enhanced oil recovery
• nuclear plants supplying heat and hydrogen for processing heavy-oil sands
• agriculture to produce both food and burnable waste products

Since 1987, the Energy Technology Data Exchange provides access to a wide range of references on energy technology, use, environment & climate issues, policy, economic factors, alternative energy and conservation. At present, 4 million references are available through the internet, including an advanced search facility. Many recent reports are available in full text. The database has a world-wide scope, and contains references in multiple languages.

And if you're a national of one of the countries participating to this IEA agreement, you may very well be entitled to free access to it all.

Review by Jeff McIntire-Strasburg via Sustainablog.

This morning I said I'd have a review up of Jeff Goodell's Big Coal: The Dirty Secret Behind America's Energy Future up in a few days, but since I started reading the book yesterday, I literally have not been able to put it down. That's a testament to Goodell's skills as a writer, and the incredible stories he tells as he examines the role of coal in American growth over the past century and Chinese growth in the coming one. Along the way, Goodell tells the stories of miners, utility executives and global warming activists, among others, creating a very readable book on an incredibly complex subject.

I picked up the phrase "the empire of denial" from Goodell's epilogue, and that's essentially how "Big Coal" is characterized through the book: in denial of not only the human and environmental costs of their product, but also in denial about the inevitable waning of this energy source even as it's seeing a renewal of interest in the US. A few executives tied in with coal production, primarily in the big utility companies, recognize that regulation of CO2 is coming, and think it's in their best interest to get ahead of the curve by, at the very least, investing in new power plants that incorporate coal gasification and carbon sequestration technologies. By and large, though, the big utilities are building old-school dirty coal-burning plants (such as one going up in Southern Illinois) as quickly as possible to make a quick buck before regulation becomes a fact of life and requires the coal industry to internalize the costs it passes on, at least in terms of pollution. Yes, they're incorporating the latest scrubbers and such into these new plants, but as Goodell notes, even these new "clean" plants will still emit tons of CO2, mercury, and combustion wastes such as fly ash, continuing Big Coal's legacy as one of the biggest contributors to global warming and public health problems.

Goodell divides his book into three sections, each corresponding to a stage in the "lifecycle" of coal production and consumption: the first deals with mining, the second with burning the black rocks in power plants, and the third with the effects of emissions. Goodell's choice to look at the full picture, from mine to power plant to disposing of wastes, as well as the exhaustive research he puts into each section, makes this book a bit overwhelming -- in one sense, it mirrors recent books like James Howard Kunstler's The Long Emergency which examine how oil underlies almost every aspect of life in developed countries. Goodell's take on the future is certainly much less dramatic than Kunstler's, but he makes it clear that we're on the threshold of big changes in how we produce energy in this country. The coal industry's mantra has been "We'll figure out the problems later when we've made technological advances to deal with them," but Goodell makes clear that 1) some of the most promising technological advances are ready for commercial use, but the utility companies aren't willing to spend the necessary money on them, and 2) we're simply no longer in a position to put off facing the music on climate change and other environmental problems.

While looking at the big picture, Goodell never forgets that it's individuals who pay some of the most horrific prices for our dependence on the cheap electricity provided by coal. We read stories about two of the miners rescued from the Quecreek, Pennsylvania mine disaster in 2002, a woman who's family homestead has been devastated by the new floods produced by mountain top removal in the Appalachians, and a man in China's poorest province who's created his own methane digester to produce usable gas from his farm animals' poop. The facts and statistics in this book are fascinating, but it's the stories of individuals dealing with the past and present of Big Coal that really kept me turning pages.

This is an important book, especially as coal is experiencing a renaissance in the US. Goodell's no pie-in-the-sky idealist: he recognizes we will be burning coal for the foreseeable future. At the same time, he makes it amply clear that if we choose to keep burning it as we always have, the costs we'll face shortly down the road will dwarf the economic problems that that conservative politicians and their industrial sugar-daddies love to tout as a reason why we can't regulate CO2 and other greenhouse gases. The book will be available to buy on Thursday, June 8.

By Peter Odell

If provocation stimulates lateral thought (de Bono), you will find it hard to think straight while reading Peter Odell's book. Its opening sentence sets the tone: 'Realism over the critical issues of energy supply and use in the 21st century's economies and societies has become a very scarce commodity'. Peter Odell's goes on and explains that it will be very difficult to move away rapidly from carbon fuels. He presents a 100-year scenario for the 21st century during which the world will consume 3 times more carbon energy (1660 Gtoe) than in the 20th (500 Gtoe). He finds that carbon energy is not as scarce a commodity as above mentioned realism, and is confident we have the resources to support such demand.

Carbon fuels take the center stage in the book, with 3 of the 6 chapters devoted to coal, oil and gas. Alternative energy, defined as renewable & nuclear energy, but excluding non-commercial biomass, is occasionally mentioned. Alternative energy will start its rise in the 2nd half of the 21st century, supplying 30% of the cumulative energy needs during the century, and ending it with a 43% market share. Gas will be the fuel of the 21st century, coal will decline in relative terms, and oil is expected to peak before the middle of the century.

The book deliberately and consistently mentions carbon fuels rather than fossil fuels, The hypothesis of the fossil origin of oil and gas dates back from the 18th century, and the book devotes a chapter to an alternative theory suggesting an inorganic origin of oil and gas. We know relatively little of the deep earth crust, and this theory may be as valid as its alternative. In any case, the 'Russian-Ukranian theory of the abyssal, abiotic origin of petroleum' merits more than an instant dismissal because of its origin (the theory is also mentioned in the book by Vaclav Smil).

This compact book will delight anybody open to challenge conventional wisdom on our energy system.

For another review of this book, see Energy Policy 33(2005) 2411-2412

To publisher website

In this book, Mark Jaccard doubts our prospects for moving away quickly from carbon fuels to renewable energy sources, and expects an energy system largely dominated by fossil fuels for the 21st century. This however does not need to be incompatible with a sustainable energy system, which the book defines in practical terms according to 2 criteria:

1. The prospect for enduring indefinitely an adequate level of energy services
2. Extraction, transformation, transport and consumption of energy must be benign to people and eco-systems.

One of the central themes is a strong move to clean secondary energy - e.g. electricity and hydrogen, with no harmful emissions at the point of use. On the primary energy side, we see a wider use of new emission-free transformation technologies converting fossil fuel into these carriers, or cleaner burning fuels.

In such a scenario, the prospects of energy efficiency would be reduced. Additional transformation steps would reduce the overall efficiency of the energy system. At the same time, world population & economic development will still result in a 3 times larger demand for energy services than today.

As for the nuclear option, as it is disliked by many, a more widespread use of nuclear power is unlikely unless the technology can produce a significant cost advantage.

Sustainable Fossil Fuels would add 25% to the cost of electricity, and the use of hydrogen in cars would increase personal transport by the same. Overall, household spending on energy would increase from 6% to 8% of income.

Fossil reserves may last for another 30, 300 or 3,000 years. Current reports indicate that there is plenty of fuel, but it may not be wise to use all, because of risks related to climate change. We live in an age likely to be known to future historians as the fossil era. Fossil fuel usage is a relatively recent phenomenon, that started 150 years ago. Viewed over millennia, the fossil age is only a short bubble in time. The fossil age, historians may say, ran from mid 19th century to somewhere in the 22nd century, and was instrumental in emancipating mankind, enabling the industrial society in its upward swing, but later driven down by environmental considerations and limited fossil reserves.

Thermal power plants are the backbone of our electricity system. However, because of their relatively low efficiency, these plants are often judged inefficient and should be replaced as soon as possible by 'better ones'.

In this  contribution, Eike Roth presents an argument that such conclusion may be a bit rash. Efficiency of power plants is defined on a combination of the laws of physics with manmade conventions. In practice, the contribution of each power station should be judged on a combination of factors, such as:

• efficiency
• environmental impact

The efficiency of coal-fired power stations has increased a factor 50 over the past century, and further improvements can be expected. Upgrading the world's coal power stations to 'best available technology' could save 3500 million tonnes of CO2 emissions, i.e. more than 10 times the EU's Kyoto commitments for the first period.

For the foreseeable future, coal is very likely to remain an important part of the backbone of electricity infrastructure. Making efficient use of coal can halve CO2 emissions per kWh in comparison to some of the least efficient plants operating.